Tariffs Won’t Hurt Middle East Outlook Much, Says World Bank
The World Bank states that new global trade tariffs won’t significantly hurt the Middle East economic outlook. Despite global uncertainties, the region’s economy is improving. Growth is expected to rise steadily in the next few years. Oil-exporting Gulf states will benefit as oil production limits ease. Non-oil sectors like real estate, transport, and tourism will also remain strong.
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Stronger Outlook Ahead for the MENAAP Region
The latest World Bank report predicts steady growth for the Middle East economic outlook in 2025 and 2026. Economies in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) will grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. This outlook is better than earlier this year, showing that regional economies are finding their footing again.
Oil-exporting Gulf states will likely see more robust growth as oil production limits ease. In addition, non-oil sectors such as real estate, transport, and tourism will remain strong. For oil-importing countries, growth will be supported by stronger private spending, investment, and gains in agriculture and tourism.
Tariffs Not a Big Worry for Now
Global trade tariffs are a key risk to the world economy. However, the World Bank believes these tariffs will have limited impact on the Middle East economic outlook. Many countries in the region have diversified their trade partners and built stronger domestic markets. These steps help absorb the effects of higher tariffs or new trade barriers elsewhere.
Some smaller economies might face short-term pressure if global supply chains tighten. However, overall, the region appears well-positioned to manage these challenges. The Middle East economic outlook remains positive due to strong fundamentals.
Unlocking Growth from Within
The World Bank report points to one key area that could boost growth even further: employment, especially for women. In many countries, fewer than one in five women participate in the workforce. Education levels are rising, but participation remains low.
The World Bank estimates that closing this gender gap could increase per-person income by 20% to 30% in countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan. This opportunity offers a far greater growth potential than any tariff changes.
What This Means for the Region
While tariffs may grab headlines, they are not the primary issue for the Middle East economic outlook. Internal reforms—such as improving education, infrastructure, job creation, and supporting private enterprise—will drive the region’s economic future.
The World Bank sees a steady path ahead. Trade tensions may create noise, but the region’s strong balance sheets, steady investment, and diversified growth will keep the outlook positive.
