A recent wave of high-level diplomacy across Central Asia and the Middle East marks a significant shift in influence. Iran and Russia, once dominant powers in regional affairs, are being sidelined. In their place, Arab states—especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia—are stepping up.
Sidelined in the Caucasus
Traditionally, Iran and Russia were key players in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. But last week, the United Arab Emirates hosted the two countries for direct talks—without intermediaries.
This was the first time Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders met face-to-face in such a setting. Azerbaijani lawmaker Arzu Naghiyev called the meeting “positive” and emphasized Baku’s long-standing desire to connect its mainland to Nakhchivan, bypassing Armenian territory.
“Azerbaijan’s position on opening the Zangezur corridor to connect with Nakhchivan and Turkey is unequivocal,” Naghiyev told Iran International.
Tehran had previously threatened to use force to stop such a corridor. But today, Iran appears unable to shape the outcome.
Meanwhile, tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are rising. Several Azerbaijani citizens died in Russian custody, leading Baku to shut down Russia’s Sputnik news office and arrest some of its staff.
Armenia, on the other hand, is moving closer to the West, deepening Moscow’s diplomatic isolation.
Strategic Energy Shifts
On July 4, leaders from Central Asia, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey gathered at an Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit in Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran’s participation frustrated Russia, especially since Azerbaijan was simultaneously arresting Russian nationals.
Moscow remained silent when Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan later held joint drone drills.
Energy diplomacy is also reshaping alliances. Azerbaijan recently hosted Syria’s interim government. During this visit, reports surfaced that Israeli and Syrian officials held indirect talks.
Socar, Azerbaijan’s state oil firm, acquired a 10% stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field. Meanwhile, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum with Syria to explore gas exports.
Qatar has already started gas shipments to Syria via Jordan. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are funding reconstruction in opposition-controlled zones—bypassing the Assad regime and sidelining its Iranian and Russian backers.
UAE at the Forefront
The United Arab Emirates is leading this regional shift. On July 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan discussed key issues. These included the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, and broader regional coordination.
Trade between Turkey and the UAE surged 65% in the first half of 2025. That’s the fastest growth among Turkey’s partners. Exports to Syria also jumped 46% in the same period.
Direct investment from the Gulf into Central Asia rose 50% since 2022. A staggering 90% of that investment went to Central Asia.
Emirati companies now control all of Turkmenistan’s oil output from the Caspian Sea. They also own a 30% stake in Azerbaijan’s Absheron gas field—the second-largest in the region.
The UAE has poured more than $12 billion into Central Asia. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have added another $4 billion.
The New Power Brokers
The balance of power in the region is shifting. Arab states are moving quickly to expand their influence. Iran and Russia, meanwhile, are increasingly on the sidelines.
This realignment could redefine diplomacy, energy policy, and conflict resolution across Central Asia and the Middle East.
